St Ives is a rural constituency in Cornwall.
It has a four star target rating for Lib Dems at an upcoming General Election.
St Ives offers a great chance of a remain outcome – by voting Lib Dem to defeat the Conservatives there.
There is also almost no risk that voting Lib Dem will increase the chances of an accidental leave outcome.
For voters unable to support Lib Dems on conscience, but keen to still deliver “outcomes” other than a Conservative MP, please consider the following options:
Remain-motivated voters: Campaign for neighbouring Cambourne & Redruth’s Labour candidate against the Conservatives for the best chance for a non-Lib Dem remain outcome (a People’s Vote).
Labour-motivated voters: Neighbouring constituecncy Cambourne & Redruth need Labour campaigners to win this marginal seat from the Conservatives.
Green-motivated voters: There are no strong Green target seats in Cornwall so phone canvassing and other national action can help further afield.
Why St Ives is a Four Star Lib Dem Target
Based on our criteria (read here) the following five factors are key:
Narrowness of 2017 defeat
In 2017, Lib Dems came second to the Conservatives by less than 1% (312 votes).
This is well within the margin of their uplift in polls since then.
Lack of rivals
In 2017, Labour came third with just 14.3%. That was 28.3% behind the second place Lib Dems.
This means a split “opposition” vote is a risk, but the lack of realistic chance of Labour winning can aid tactical voting for Lib Dems.
Remain 2016 counts
In 2016, Remain lost St Ives by 54.8% to 45.2%.
This means a pro-remain campaign faces some challenges but the margin for “leave” is not more than 10%.
Derek Thomas MP (Conservative) recently voted in the Commons against blocking “no deal”.
Such a clear chance to cast the incumbent as a severe pro-brexit candidate is a Lib Dem advantage.
Brexit Party standing
The Brexit Party has not announced its candidate, but has not announced it will pass over St Ives either.
Presumption is they will stand – potentially attracting otherwise Conservative voters – but we will update when more is known.