Our five star rating for where Remainers should vote Lib Dem is based on data, experience, and human behaviour.
Along with seats that the Lib Dems won in 2017, we have identified target seats based on the following:
- Narrowness of 2017 defeat
- Lack of rivals
- Remain 2016 counts
- Leaver incumbent
- Brexit Party standing
Narrowness of 2017 Defeat
Seats in which the Lib Dems came second in 2017 by a relatively small margin have a high “winnability” value.
The Lib Dems achieved just 7.9% of the vote at the 2017 General Election. They are now polling at around 19% (based on Britain Elects’ aggregate of latest polls)
As such the long term trend in Lib Dem popularity is sufficient on its own to win many such seats if all else is equal.
Lack of Rivals
Seats where Lib Dems were second, and where third place was a long way behind.
A stand-out second placed party has natural attraction for “get the incumbant out” voters, with little likelihood of other challenger parties splitting the vote.
Lib Dems by being “centrist” in many voters’ perception aids this effect further.
Remain 2016 counts
Seats with strong remain turnout in 2016 are likely to vote remain again in 2019.
Polling suggests a national swing towards remain since 2016 (and since 2017), so remain constituencies are likely therefore to still support “remain”.
As the most prominent and “clear cut” remain party, Lib Dems should do well in them.
Seats where the incumbent has voted recently in support of “no deal”.
Remain voters and activists will be most energised to “defeat” such incumbents. Also, people not motivated by a policy (brexit) tend towards suspicion of its most extreme versions.
Lib Dems as a clear opponent to “no deal” can appeal to such activists and voters.
Brexit Party standing
Seat where the Brexit Party stands a candidate.
There is no cross-over in appeal between the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, so Lib Dems would benefit from a split vote for their opponents.