Lewes is a county constituency in the South East of England.
It has a five star target rating for Lib Dems at an upcoming General Election.
For remain-motivated voters Lewes offers a good chance of a remain outcome – by voting Lib Dem to defeat the Conservatives there.
There is also almost no risk that voting Lib Dem will increase the chances of an accidental leave outcome.
For voters unable to support Lib Dems on conscience, but keen to still deliver “outcomes” other than a Conservative MP, please consider the following options:
Remain-motivated voters: Campaign for neighbouring Brighton Pavilion’s Green MP Caroline Lucas can help retain the seat, as can campaigning for Labour Co-Operative’s Brighton Kemptown MP Lloyde Russel-Moyle. Both strongly support remaining in the EU.
Labour-motivated voters: Neighbouring Brighton Kemptown needs Labour campaigners to keep this seat from the Conservatives.
Green-motivated voters: Neighbouring Brighton Pavillion is a “safe” Green Party seat, but should not be taken for granted and needs Green campaigners to ensure it is held.
Why Lewes is a Five Star Lib Dem Target
Based on our criteria (read here) the following five factors are key:
Narrowness of 2017 defeat
In 2017, Lib Dems came second to the Conservatives by 10.2% (5,508 votes).
This is within the margin of their uplift in polls since then – albeit at the upper end of that margin.
Lack of rivals
In 2017, Labour came third with 11.2%. That was 28.1% behind the second place Lib Dems.
This means a split “opposition” vote is a risk, but the lack of realistic chance of Labour winning can aid tactical voting for Lib Dems.
Remain 2016 counts
In 2016, Remain won Lewes by 52.86% to 47.14%.
This means a pro-remain campaign will likely go down well in this (marginally) pro-remain seat.
Maria Caulfield MP (Conservative) recently voted in the Commons against blocking “no deal”.
Such a clear chance to cast the incumbent as a severe pro-brexit candidate is a Lib Dem advantage.
Brexit Party standing
The Brexit Party has announced its candidate as Adam Cleary.
The Brexit Party standing a candidate is likely to draw some brexit-motivated voters away from the Conservative incumbent but few from the Lib Dems.