Camborne and Redruth is a county constituency in Cornwall.
It has a five star target rating for Labour at an upcoming General Election.
For remain-motivated voters Camborne and Redruth offers a great chance of a remain outcome – by voting Labour to defeat the Conservatives there.
There is also almost no risk that voting Labour will increase the chances of an accidental leave outcome.
For voters unable to support Labour on conscience, but keen to still deliver “outcomes” other than a Conservative MP, please consider the following options:
Remain-motivated voters: Campaign for neighbouring St. Ives Lib Dem Candidate who supports a People’s Vote or Revoke for a non-Labour remain outcome.
Lib Dem-motivated voters: Neighbouring St. Ives needs Lib Dem campaigners to tale the seat from the Conservatives.
Green-motivated voters: There are no strong Green target seats in the area so phone canvassing and other national action can help further afield.
Why Camborne and Redruth is a Five Star Labour Target
Based on our criteria (read here) the following five factors are key:
Narrowness of 2017 defeat
In 2017, Labour came second to the Conservatives by just 3.3% (1,577 votes).
This is well within the margin of Labour’s smaller gap to the Tories compared to the start of the 2017 campaign.
Lack of rivals
In 2017, Lib Dems came third with just 6.1%. That was 38.1% behind the second place Labour.
This means a split “opposition” vote is a risk, but the lack of realistic chance of Lib Dems winning can aid tactical voting for Labour.
Neighbourhood Seat Potential
Neighbouring St Ives is not just a Lib Dem-Tory marginal, but a high priority target seat for Lib Dems.
This means a strategic use of local resources should work in each party’s favour.
George Eustace MP (Conservative) recently voted in the Commons against blocking “no deal”.
Such a clear chance to cast the incumbant as a extreme is a Labour advantage in position of centre ground and may motivate more local remainers to vote tactically too.
Brexit Party standing
The Brexit Party has named Ian Lacy as its candidate.
A Brexit Party Candidate is a challenge to the Conservatives as it risks splitting their vote or distracting their campaign away from moderates.