Our five star rating for where Remainers should vote Labour is based on data, experience, and human behaviour.
Along with seats that the Labour won in 2017, we have identified target seats based on the following:
- Narrowness of 2017 defeat
- Lack of rivals
- Neighbouring Seat Potential
- Leaver incumbent
- Brexit Party standing
Narrowness of 2017 Defeat
Seats in which Labour came second in 2017 by a small margin have a high “winnability” value.
Labour are lower in the polls now than their 2017 result but they are less far behind the Conservatives at the start of this campaign than they were that year.
Labour closed a +20 point gap to a just 6 points in the 2017 General Election. They are deploying the same strategy again and, despite this writer’s wariness, the early indications are that it is working again.
Against a now less popular Conservative Party (than the start of the 2017 campaign) this should be sufficient to win these seats.
Lack of Rivals
Seats where Labour were second, and where third place was a long way behind.
A stand-out second placed party has natural attraction for “get the incumbant out” voters, with little likelihood of other challenger parties splitting the vote.
This may not boost a (perceived) left wing Labour as much as a centrist party, because some will swing to the incumbent to avoid an “extreme”, but on Brexit Labour is (sometimes confusingly) the centrist option (offering a people’s vote and a Brexit deal). So it will have relevance.
Neighbouring Seat Potential
Where Lib-Con and Lab-Con marginals are nearby, their prospects likely benefit.
Labour have marginal seats just about everywhere – mostly up against the Conservatives. Lib Dems in particular, do not, but are also mostly up against Conservatives in their marginals too.
Both parties will focus their local resources at their marginal, leaving a clearer field for eachother, while local Tories will be fighting on two fronts.
This is especially valuable to Labour as their strategic asset is boots on the ground.
Seats where the incumbent has voted recently in support of “no deal”.
Remain voters and activists will be most energised to “defeat” such incumbents. Also, people not motivated by a policy (brexit) tend towards suspicion of its most extreme versions.
Labour are not a clear opponent to Brexit but do offer a “remain outcome” for tactical voters – in the shape of a people’s vote.
Brexit Party Standing
Seat where the Brexit Party stands a candidate.
Labour has fewer “leave” motivated voters to lose to the Brexit Party than the Conservatives do. This makes BP a bigger threat to Conservative electoral prospects.
The Brexit Party also hinders Tory Party campaigning. If it presents a “severe” Brexit face to keep votes out of BP hands, it likely opens the ears of voters wary of extremes to whatever Labour canvassers have to say.